Five graphs that show what’s next for the property market

This article was originally published by CHRIS KOHLER on April 5, 2018 via domain.com.au

Australian house prices will push modestly higher this year and ramp up in 2019, according to ANZ economists, who say outright price falls are off the table.

National house prices are just 0.8 per cent higher than they were 12 months ago – a far cry from the 10 per cent growth seen in the previous year – but ANZ doesn’t expect the slowdown to deepen from here. 

Total growth of 1.8 per cent across the country is now forecast this year by ANZ, picking up to 3.6 per cent growth in 2019, with Melbourne and Hobart expected to outperform.

While the days of double-digit percentage price growth are now history, outright house price falls aren’t likely, according to senior ANZ economists Daniel Gradwell and Joanne Masters.

“We think most of the slowdown has already occurred,” the economists wrote this week. “We retain our view that prices will not materially decline.

“We think most of the slowdown has already occurred.”ANZ senior economists Daniel Gradwell and Joanne Masters

“Over the near term, auction results in Sydney and Melbourne suggest that the majority of the price growth adjustment is behind us.”

A strong labour market and rising incomes will drive price growth, the economists argue, after pushing back their Reserve Bank rate hike predictions to mid-2019 from two in 2018.

But Morgan Stanley analysts aren’t so confident, with risks seen to be building in 2018 after several months of house price weakness and possible further top-level regulatory pressure.

“Conditions for housing for the remainder of 2018 continue to look challenging with further regulatory tightening of credit, an increasing stock of properties to be settled, and continued uncertainty on government policy for housing as the election cycle looms,” equity strategists led by Daniel Blake wrote to clients this week.

“This leaves us cautious on the outlook not just for housing, but the broader economy in 2018, given the leveraged exposure of the economy to the property market.”

House prices will pick up in 2019: ANZ

The absence of higher official interest rates this year will support house prices, according to ANZ, with the bank’s economists seeing strengthening national property prices into 2019.

Melbourne is predicted to continue to outperform Sydney, while Brisbane is also forecast to see solid growth next year. Hobart is forecast to push higher and both Perth and Darwin are expected to pop back into positive annual growth territory in 2019.

First-home buyers replacing investors

Tighter regulations governing the number of investor and interest-only lending major banks can write has seen a significant pullback in buying activity from those types of buyers, ANZ research shows.

But government grants and sizeable stamp duty tax concessions in NSW and Victoria have helped spur a revival among first-home buyers – their return to the market is said to be helping plug the hole left by investors.

“APRA’s changes are driving investors out of the housing market,” Mr Gradwell and Ms Masters wrote.

“To a large extent they are being replaced by first-home buyers, who are enjoying stamp duty discounts in New South Wales and Victoria.”

That means growth is strongest in the lower-end of the market

The main risks to ANZ’s forecasts are the potential for the RBA to hike rates sooner than expected, squeezing heavily indebted households.

“High household debt leaves households sensitive to interest rate increases, although this seems unlikely to become an issue in this year,” Mr Gradwell and Ms Masters wrote.

“Indeed, we do not expect the RBA to hike rates until 2019, and then by only 50bp [basis points] in the year which is unlikely to hit affordability in a material way. Moreover, most households continue to hold a solid buffer.”

And while Morgan Stanley remains cautious on the property market, the analysts concede consumer confidence has remained above trend, and building activity has also outstripped expectations.

“These factors are holding up better than past relationships with prices would suggest, which in turn sees the broader impact of the slowdown in housing prices being limited – so far,” the equity analysts wrote.

This article was originally published by Peter Farago on APRIL 4, 2018 via news.com.au

GEELONG home values grew faster than any regional area in the nation as new data shows more evidence that prices were softening in the big capital cities.

This article was originally published by JEMIMAH CLEGG on MAR 29, 2018 via domain.com.au

Homes in the outer suburbs are the fastest selling in Melbourne, thanks to high demand from first-home buyers, experts say.

Of the 10 suburbs where houses spent the shortest time on the market last year, seven had medians less than the $600,000 threshold for first-home buyer stamp duty concessions, according to Domain Group data on private sales.

Rowville, in the outer east, was the fastest-selling suburb for houses and also had the highest median in the top 10 – $856,500 – still less than Melbourne’s median of $903,859.

On average it took just 22 days for a house in Rowville to sell. Local Barry Plant director Anthony Johnson said many sold after just one day.

“Rowville tends to have the right price point for a lot more buyers than one or two suburbs closer in,” Mr Johnson said. “It’s a family friendly suburb with a mixture of properties and good accessibility.”

Frankston North, with a median house price of $470,000, took the second spot with and average on-market time of 23 days, followed by Carrum Downs (median $525,000), Cranbourne West ($511,000), Ferntree Gully ($740,000) and Hampton Park ($500,000), where houses spent an average of 24 days on the market.

Property expert and executive chair of WBP Group Greville Pabst said lower-priced homes always sold more quickly, and that stamp-duty concessions for first-home buyers made this particularly true in 2017 and the first part of this year.

“The strongest sector of our buyer market is currently the first-home buyers,” Mr Pabst said. “It’s causing demand to flow into those lower-value suburbs.”

He said properties between $600,000 and $1 million were also highly sought after.

“That’s the sweet spot, so in that price range you have a lot of people who can afford to buy and there’s a lot of demand,” Mr Pabst said.

The 10 slowest-selling suburbs were also dominated by affordable areas on the fringes, including Werribee South, Rockbank and Greenvale, but were not as well-established as the top 10.

Toorak, which had a median of $4,395,000, took third spot on the slow-sellers list, with houses spending an average of 93 days on the market. Mr Pabst said this was not unusual for exclusive suburbs.

“Sometimes it can take three months to sell a prestigious property, particularly because the pool of buyers is so much smaller,” he said.

Croydon took the top spot when it came to the fastest-selling units. The eastern suburb with a unit median of $510,000 had an on-market average of 27 days.

Older-style, brick units with a bit of land were common in Croydon and Fletchers Real Estate Maroondah Director Reilly Waterfield said mum and dad investors were buying them up.

“Banks are often more in favour of slightly dated units with more space than brand new off-the-plan apartments,” Mr Waterfield said.

Other top suburbs for rapid unit sales were in the desirable inner-ring close to transport and entertainment, including St Kilda East which had an average number of days on market of 51, Thornbury (53) and Brunswick (58).

Mr Pabst said units were popular in areas close to amenities – mainly because they were more affordable than houses.

“Housing is getting so expensive that an apartment is a cheaper alternative particularly for younger people,” he said.

The slowest selling units and apartments were in areas where there was a large supply, Mr Pabst said.

“For example in Docklands, there’s more supply of apartments on sale, therefore because of that extra competition it’s going to sell,” he said.

This article was originally published by AIDAN DEVINE on MARCH 28, 2018 via news.com.au

FORGET Sydney, Melbourne or even Brisbane — property investors seeking the best capital growth prospects should buy in regional NSW, a new report claims.

 Don't miss out, CLICK HERE to get up to date video education from Konrad Bobilak.

Choosing your first investment property can be a daunting task, typically laced with much uncertainty. However, it is perhaps the most important step in your property investing endeavours, as you will learn tremendously from acquiring, settling and managing your first investment property that cannot be learned from books and live events.

Perhaps the most important aspect of your investing journey is 'to start' investing; too often first time investors become overwhelmed and overloaded with due-diligence, differing opinions, and many suffer paralysis from analysis, and end up delaying the investment process indefinitely.

Building and structuring a multi-million-dollar property portfolio that will eventually free you from work is based on a specific process much like a recipe for baking a cake.

When you want to bake a cake, you locate that special recipe you want to prepare. Then it's a simple matter of sourcing the right quality ingredients, adding them in the correct sequence, and following the rest of the directions until you arrive at the finished product.

The key is, to make sure that you get quality ingredients, in the correct order, or your cake will not be a success.

Building wealth through property is basically the same.

The key is to conduct research, find out how other successful property investors have built and structured their property portfolios, who and what they have sourced, how they have made their money work for them, and for you to do the same.

Once you have found a winning recipe or plan that has worked for other successful investors, then it becomes a simple matter of repeating the process until you have built and structured your investment property portfolio correctly.

And although this process sounds simple, as you will find out by watching this video, it's actually not easy to do, as there are very few successful property investors in Australia who have managed to build large property portfolios, and very few professionals who can help you get there.

So the million dollar question is...what's the recipe?

Well that's exactly what this entire video is about, and, from a high level perspective, here is the recipe, broken down into 4 essential elements or ingredients.

There are 4 critical components that make up the winning recipe for successfully building a large multi-million dollar property portfolio that will enable you to achieve financial independence;

1. Cultivating the right investor PSYCHOLOGY,
2. Developing the right PLAN and SYSTEM,
3. Developing a team of EXPERTS around you, and
4. Understanding PROPERTY SELECTION METHODOLOGY!

When all 4 components of this winning recipe are added together in the right sequence, using quality ingredients, and at the right time...magic happens!

But just like baking a cake, it's very easy to get the quality of the ingredients wrong, or to mix them in the wrong order or to simply leave the cake in the oven too long, and burn it!

You see, behind every successful property investor or self-made millionaire there is a team of experts that has been that person's catalyst for success. Put simply, all the psychology, and specialised knowledge in the world will not translate to actual results.

Other specialists are needed to bring the investor's plan into fruition.

That is, one needs a solicitor to settle the property, a real estate agent to sell the property, a mortgage broker to submit the loan to the bank...and so on.

These specialists form the individual's Mastermind Team of Industry Experts.

Such a team, may include, but is not limited to the following individuals;

1. A Property Mentor
2. A Mortgage Broker or Banker
3. A Property Accountant
4. A Property Solicitor
5. A Quantity Surveyor
6. A Property Valuer
7. A Property Manager
8. An Insurance Broker or Financial Planner.

The difficulty with accurately identifying and pre-qualifying the relevant experts which will ultimately form part of your Mastermind Team lies with the Investor's level of Specialised Knowledge in the particular field, and their ability to ask the right questions in order to prequalify and shortlist them.

Don't miss out, CLICK HERE to get up to date video education from Konrad Bobilak.

This article was originally published by AMELIA BARNES on MAR 29, 2018 via domain.com.au

Ballarat is in the thick of a second golden rush. This time, it’s for real estate, rather than shimmering nuggets. The population is about 106,000 and Ballarat is the fourth fastest-growing city in the country. Real estate agents say between 40 and 47 per cent of inquiries are from Melbourne-based prospective buyers.

New Ballarat resident Eloise Brown rented a home in Brunswick East for almost eight years due to the difficulty of affording a suitable Melbourne property.

Fast forward to 2018 and Brown, along with her husband and two young children, are among the growing cohort of first-home owners establishing themselves in Ballarat.

Three months since moving, Brown loves the city, including its many events (which can be accessed on foot without the hassle of public transport or being stuck in traffic), her husband’s job at the local high school, and the community atmosphere.

“It’s wonderful and we’re very excited to have landed on our feet … we have more space inside and out.” Brown says. “Everyone has been so open, welcoming and friendly.”

Brown’s Ballarat tree-change story is not uncommon.

“We are seeing all types of buyers visit our open homes, including young first-home buyers, who are … eligible for the regional Victoria first home owner grant,” says Buxton Ballarat director Peter Burley. Ballarat city council is one of the municipalities where first-home owners are eligible to receive $20,000 when building or buying a home valued at up to $750,000.

Investors also have their eye on Ballarat, including Buxton Highton sales consultant Mergim Ibrahimi.

“I see Ballarat today where Geelong was four years ago,” he says. “What appeals … are the comparably low prices, high rental yields and similar proximity to Melbourne’s CBD as what Geelong offers.”

With a median house price of $433,000 according to Domain Group data, Ballarat property is about half the price of Melbourne’s. However, this is quickly increasing. For example, in late 2017, Ballarat’s median house price was just $325,000.

While there is the occasional grumble from longstanding residents about the boom. Overall, locals are appreciative of the thriving culture and increasing amenity.

Hocking Stuart Ballarat director Tim Valpied says Melbourne buyers are drawn to Ballarat’s period homes as well as the new housing estates in Alfredton and those around the Delacombe and Lucas town centres.

This article was originally published by CHRIS TOLHURST PROPERTY REPORTER on MAR 25, 2018 via domain.com.au

House hunters aged 50-plus confidently contested single-level properties at auctions across Melbourne on the weekend, with one superior low-set home in Armadale rocketing $525,000 above reserve.

The bumper weekend auction market – with more than 1700 homes going under the hammer – also saw spirited demand for rare warehouse-style properties within six kilometres of the CBD.

But it was cashed-up members of the Baby Boomer generation who dominated auctions in areas as far afield as Fitzroy North, Albert Park, the inner-east and Seaforth, 36 kilometres south of the city centre.

The Domain Group posted a solid 64.6 per cent clearance rate from 1303 reported auctions on Saturday. Another 32 properties scheduled to go under the gavel were withdrawn from auction and the results of a further 380 booked auctions were not reported by real estate agents.

Saturday’s sales performance was down on the 67.9 per cent clearance rate from 1094 reported auctions on the previous weekend. But a clearance level of 65 per cent from a significantly larger auction pool points to an underlying consistency and strength in the market.

Hotly contested properties included a converted church hall in the heart of Fitzroy. The arty residence with a central courtyard at 182 Fitzroy Street climbed $446,000 above its reserve at a Nelson Alexander auction before selling for $2,446,000. 

The 170-year-old property known as Independence Hall had featured in numerous film and television productions, including the TV series Jack Irish and the 1988 feature film Ricky & Pete.

Auctioneer Arch Staver accepted a $1.8 million opening offer for the three-bedroom home, on just 160 square metres, and was soon fielding rapid-fire bids from five parties. The house sold to a young professional woman currently living in Fitzroy.

In Armadale, the auction of a renovated four-bedroom home with a pool at 32 Armadale Street started on a vendor bid of $4.8 million. Four bidders, mostly aged in their late 40s or older, then ratcheted up the price well beyond the $5.5 million reserve. 

Buyer’s advocate Adam Woledge, of Woledge Hatt, said the property was sold by Marshall White for $6,075,000 after being declared on the market at $5.5 million.

“It was one of the bigger results today,” he said. “The property was a great single-level offering ideally suited to an older family or downsizers. That market is still performing well.”

Downsizers sprinted to the winning post in Fitzroy North, too.

At a Jellis Craig auction of a pretty Edwardian single-level home at 229 Scotchmer Street, a mature couple won out over a 30-something couple. The older duo, who were downsizing from the Boroondara council area, paid $2.46 million against a $2.3 million reserve for the three-bedroom renovated home which had good rear lane access and a garage. According to the agent, more than 100 groups of prospective buyers inspected the property.

More mature buyers also flexed their financial muscle at Buxton Chelsea’s auction of a four-bedroom house at 6 Largs Street, Seaforth, which drew six bidders.

Auctioneer Daniel Wright said the updated 1960s weatherboard, 500 metres from the beach, sold for exactly $1 million and was the first house sale in the outlying suburb to reach $1 million.

“We upped the quote to $900,000 to $950,000 in the last weeks of the campaign,” he said. “We were originally quoting $860,000 to $940,000 but we had that much interest around $950,000.

“The property sold to a family downsizing from Bentleigh. Their house at the moment is double the size of this one; they want to downsize, be near the beach and have a sea change.”

The city’s real estate market is displaying a greater level of polarisation between properties of differing quality and standard. Many would-be buyers at the weekend were prepared to make offers on second-tier and lesser-light dwellings only if they were priced at fair value.

A-grade homes – renovated, in quiet streets, close to schools and other amenities – are increasingly pushing ahead of the pack. Meanwhile, the properties perceived to have faults are getting ignored or passed in at auction if buyers sniff out a poor value proposition.

Mr Staver said buyers had more opportunities and choices when clearance rates skirted around the 65 to 70 per cent mark.

“There is a comfort and a certainty when you transact in a less fever-pitched market,” he said.

Domain Group data on the weekend showed a low clearance rate for the inner east’s house market of 52 per cent. Just 85 houses from 160 reported auctions were sold in the popular precinct, suggesting that plenty of buyers are prepared to wait for the next property to come along.

Other regional house markets were more robust. The inner south posted a clearance rate of 62 per cent, the south east notched up 67 per cent, the outer east 60 per cent, the north east 69 per cent and the northern suburbs saw 69 houses sell from 95 reported auctions for a 70 per cent clearance rate. The west saw 133 houses sell from a big inventory of 196 house auctions to produce a 65 per cent clearance rate.

Hundreds of auctions in Saturday’s rain-affected market needed to be kick-started with a vendor bid. But even though many sales of top-quality properties initially moved at a glacial pace they generally put on speed and intensity.

At a Kew auction, Jellis Craig auctioneer Richard Earle described an extended period weatherboard family home at 8 College Parade as “block-fronted architecture at its very best”. Even so, he then had to fire off three vendor bids – the last at $2.75 million – to crank the sale into gear.

After a break to consult with the vendor, he soon had four $3 million-plus buyers vying for the keys. On the market at $2.95 million, the four-bedroom home, near Glenferrie Road, was sold to a family for $3.29 million, substantially ahead of the $2.75 million to $2.9 million quote range.

After the auction, Mr Earle said A-grade homes were selling strongly in the current market but future sales results for B and C-grade properties would be determined by their asking prices.

Property Mavens chief executive Miriam Sandkuhler said Saturday’s auction market performed well in popular inner ring suburbs with great amenity and proximity to public transport.

“This was evident at 25 Murphy Street, South Yarra,” she said. “The auction of this well-located early Edwardian house on 365 square metres with no heritage overlay saw a crowd of 40 attend and four bidders battle it out for the title. Quoted low at $2.2 million to $2.4 million, the bidding opened at $2,125,000 and the property sold after multiple bids, in increments ranging from $50,000 to $1,000, for the substantial sum of $3,161,000 – a massive $781,000 over the reserve of $2,380,000.”

An investor purchased the home and will initially rent it out. The site has potential to be developed into apartments, a new single home or townhouses.

Another professional property buyer, Frank Valentic of Advantage Property Consulting, said some weakness was evident in the $1 million to $2 million market in the city’s inner ring.

He said a double-fronted Victorian house subject to a heritage overlay at 31 Clyde Street, St Kilda, attracted offers from two bidders. However, the four-bedroom unrenovated home was passed in by Greg Hocking Persichetti for $1,675,000 after bidding opened at $1.6 million.

The pass-in figure was below the property’s quoted range of $1.7 million to $1.87 million.

“Last year, we would have seen four or five families bidding for a large home in that price range.” Mr Valentic said. “Buyer depth has narrowed or dwindled between $1 million and $2 million.”

This article was originally published by Samantha Landy on MARCH 25, 2018 via news.com.au

THERE are more property millionaires than ever in Melbourne, with the proportion of sales worth seven figures or more skyrocketing in recent years.

New CoreLogic figures show 28.3 per cent of Melbourne houses sold for $1 million or more last year — up from 23.7 per cent the year before, and 9.7 per cent five years ago.

The unit market has also seen a significant rise in transactions worth more than a million, jumping from 3.5 per cent in 2012 to 7.2 per cent in 2016 to 8.3 per cent in 2017.

Melbourne’s proportion of sales in excess of $1 million last year was second only to Sydney’s 49.3 per cent for houses and 22.3 per cent for units.

But the CoreLogic report said the tide could be turning in the city’s million-dollar market, with home values trending lower in most of Australia’s capitals.

“Additional data also indicates that values are falling by the greatest amount across the premium sector of the housing market,” it said.

“Should these declines continue, it may result in a decline in the share of sales of properties at or in excess of $1 million throughout 2018.”

CoreLogic state director for Victoria Geoff White conversely expected Melbourne’s seven-figure sales to keep growing this year.

9 Cambridge Drive, Berwick earned $1 million last year. Source:Supplied

 

He said middle and outer ‘burbs — particularly those east and southeast of the CBD, including Berwick and Bentleigh East — were notching more $1 million-plus transactions, while in-demand inner postcodes were still on the rise.

“You can’t get into some suburbs without $1 million now. It’s run of the mill,” Mr White said.

“Five to 10 years ago, it was considered a benchmark.

“It won’t be long until we’re saying $1.5 million will be the minimum spend.”

Mr White said some areas within spitting distance of the CBD still offered houses for six-figures — but they were few and far between, concentrated in the west and north, and many of the homes were “still nudging $900,000”.

 

Malvern’s Stonington Mansion sold for many millions earlier this year. Source: News Limited

A recent spate of eye-watering deals in the leafy inner east also reflect growth in Melbourne’s multimillion-dollar market.

They’re led by the record-breaking $52.5 million sale of Stonington Mansionin Glenferrie Rd, Malvern.

RT Edgar Toorak director Oliver Booth said there were several deep-pocketed families willing to spend “well over $20 million” for substantial homes in Toorak, but not enough available housing stock to meet the demand.

This article was originally published by JEMIMAH CLEGG on MAR 25, 2018 via domain.com.au

When a loveable bogan hit Australian big screens and asked “how’s the serenity?” the story of a man’s quest to keep his home was cemented as a cult classic.

Michael Caton’s character in The Castle, Darryl Kerrigan, was not going to stand for the forced purchase of his home for a mere $70,000 – but that was the going rate for a house in Broadmeadows, just south of the Kerrigan house, and then Melbourne’s cheapest suburb.

The year was 1997. Hanson’s MMMBop topped the charts and was forever stuck in everyone’s head, Titanic had movie-goers in tears, Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone was released (the book, not the movie) and Melbourne’s median house price was $177,500.

Just over 20 years later, things have certainly changed at the bottom end of the market.

Melbourne’s ever-expanding boundaries have meant suburbs up to 70 kilometres from the city have pushed Broadmeadows (2017 median $575,000), Heidelberg Heights ($731,000) and Sunshine ($780,000) out of the 10 most affordable suburbs list, according to Real Estate Institute of Victoria data.

Melton was the only suburb to stay in the most affordable ranks with a median of $360,000 – more than four times what it was in ’97.

REIV president Ricard Simpson said Melton was still growing, with surrounding suburbs to the west and south popping up in the past 20 years.

“Kurunjang is actually Melton north,” Mr Simpson said. “It’s still in the bottom really because of where it’s located – so far away from the city centre.”

At the top not much changed. The four most expensive suburbs 20 years ago are the same today – Toorak, Canterbury, Brighton and Malvern. Camberwell and Middle Park also made the top 10 both ’97 and 2017.

But you’d be dreamin’ if you tried to pick up a home in these exclusive ‘burbs at 1997 prices.

Toorak’s 2017 median was six times what it was 20 years ago at $4,475,000 (yes, back then you could buy for $739,000 in the posh locale – just under what you’d pay in Heidelberg Heights today).

This article was originally published by Samantha Landy on 23 MAR 2018 via realestate.com.au

MELBOURNE could be on track to have its biggest ever auction week, with almost 2000 homes expected to go under the hammer.

CoreLogic is tracking 1934 auctions for the city this week — just shy of the record volume of 1983 notched in late October.

But CoreLogic state director for Victoria Geoff White said a new benchmark could still be set by Monday: “Typically we find there were more auctions than we tracked. So it could be a ultimately be a record.”

Further figures from REIV predict 2060 auctions across 377 suburbs for Victoria this week.