Dear Fellow Property Investor,
ANZ and the Commonwealth Bank are both forecasting a rate cut when the RBA next meets in February. The Reserve Bank says economic management remains a "balancing act".
ANZ has joined the Commonwealth Bank in predicting an interest rate cut in February, which could provide relief to mortgage holders following a sustained rate of 4.35 per cent.
The cash rate has stayed the same since November 2023, with Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governor Michele Bullock saying that taming inflation is a "balancing act"."
With inflation coming down and employment growing, we think we remain on the narrow path," she said after the central bank's December meeting.
So, what does the RBA consider when setting its cash rate target, and what do the 'big four' banks think lies ahead?
What are the banks predicting?
ANZ and CommBank are both forecasting a rate cut when the RBA next meets in February.
Westpac and NAB disagree and are predicting Australians will have to wait for the third RBA meeting in May before the cash rate target is changed.
The banks also differ when it comes to estimating how many cuts will occur throughout 2025.
ANZ is the most conservative and is anticipating two cuts this year, while CBA and Westpac both speculate four will occur.
NAB is projecting five rate cuts.
Independent financial comparison site Canstar has estimated that a reduction in monthly repayments from one cut could be up to $92 on a $600,000 loan with 25 years remaining on the term.
How much could Australians save?
On Friday, Canstar released data calculating drops in mortgage repayments for each of the bank's predictions.
If five rate cuts are realised, the drop in monthly repayments could be as high as $441 per month for a borrower with a $600,000 loan and 25 years remaining.
If just two rate cuts occur, the same borrower will save $182 each month.NAB is expecting the greatest relief for borrowers with five cuts compared to ANZ’s forecast for only two cuts.
A rate cut is increasingly likely this February, but Canstar data insights director Sally Tindall said to "prepare for any possibility".
"The big question is just how many rate cuts the RBA will end up handing out. If you’ve got a mortgage, be prepared for every possibility," she said.
"A rate cut in February is increasingly likely, however, with over five weeks to go until the next Board meeting and the RBA firmly focused on incoming data, this could change."
There are several measures that influence RBA decision-making, including inflation and unemployment.
Looking to inflation and employment rates
ANZ's new prediction of a February rate cut follows the release of November's consumer price index (CPI) data on Wednesday.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported CPI at 2.3 per cent in the 12 months leading to November, within the RBA's target of 2 to 3 per cent.
ABS head of price statistics Michelle Marquardt said government electricity rebates had a large impact on CPI.
"In some states and territories, households received two rebate payments in October in lieu of not receiving a payment in July. From November, most households have received one payment," she said on Wednesday.
"As a result, electricity prices fell 21.5 per cent in the 12 months to November, compared to a fall of 35.6 per cent to October."
Meanwhile, underlying inflation was at 3.2 per cent in November, down from 3.5 per cent in October.
The RBA's target for this form of inflation is 2 to 3 per cent. Tindall said analysts would also be looking at soon-to-be-released employment data.
"All eyes will be on next week’s ABS Labour Force data and the quarterly CPI results released at the end of the month," she said.
"If core inflation continues along the same trajectory as we saw in the more volatile monthly dataset, then we could well see a rate cut."
Let me ask you something…
Do you have a game plan for 2025?
Or will you watch savvy, educated, market-ready investors snap up all the bargains at the bottom of the Melbourne property cycle (which, in my opinion, already bottomed out in November 2022), again?
Or, will you join them?
So, what are you waiting for?
Reserve your place and join me and 55 like-minded property investors for the first Real Estate Investing Fast Track Weekend for 2025!
Click HERE to reserve your seat now!
Dear Fellow Property Investors,
Melbourne homes are now 41% cheaper than those in Sydney, a $600,000 difference, marking the largest price gap in 20 years.
Sydney has long been Australia’s most expensive city for homebuyers, but the price difference between Sydney and Melbourne has reached unprecedented levels.
PropTrack’s Eleonor Creagh said that as of August, Sydney’s median house price is 70% higher than Melbourne’s, with Melbourne homes now 41% cheaper – a $600,000 difference, marking the largest price gap in 20 years.
Housing supply and land constraints drive Sydney’s premium.
One significant factor behind Sydney’s rising premium is its constrained land supply.
Sydney’s natural features, including its harbor and surrounding national parks, limit the availability of developable land.
In contrast, Melbourne has seen a higher rate of new home completions per capita.
Over the past decade, Victoria averaged 9.5 new dwellings per 1,000 residents per year, compared to just seven in New South Wales, PropTrack reported.
Higher building costs in Sydney
A recent report by The Centre for International Economics (CIE) also highlighted Sydney’s higher construction costs. Red tape, taxes, and other fees make building new homes in Sydney more expensive, with 50% of these costs tied to such charges, compared to 37% in Melbourne.
“Waterfront properties and international appeal have kept Sydney’s market strong,” Creagh said.
Melbourne’s market struggles post-pandemic
Melbourne has lagged behind other cities since the COVID-19 pandemic, losing population and experiencing less dramatic price increases than other Australian capitals.
Since March 2020, Melbourne has been the weakest performing capital, with house prices still 4.7% below their peak.
The city has even dropped to fourth place among Australia’s most expensive capitals, with Brisbane and Canberra surpassing it.
Investor confidence declines in Victoria
Several factors are contributing to Melbourne’s continued underperformance.
Higher land taxes for investment properties have made Melbourne less attractive to investors, while stock levels remain high. In July, Melbourne listings were the highest since November 2018, providing buyers with plenty of choices.
The future of the Sydney-Melbourne divide
Looking ahead, Melbourne’s housing market is expected to remain subdued compared to Sydney, Creagh said.
The combination of a high inventory of homes and softer economic conditions may cause Melbourne prices to fall further. However, as Melbourne houses become more affordable, the price gap could eventually narrow.
While Sydney’s geographic limitations and global appeal may ensure it retains a price premium, the historic price swing may make Melbourne more appealing in the future.“
At some point, Melbourne may be seen as undervalued, given its current price levels relative to Sydney,” Creagh said.
Let me ask you something…
Do you have a game plan for 2025?
Or will you watch savvy, educated, market-ready investors snap up all the bargains at the bottom of the Melbourne property cycle (which, in my opinion, already bottomed out in November 2022), again?
Or, will you join them?
So, what are you waiting for?
Reserve your place and join me and 55 like-minded property investors for the first Real Estate Investing Fast Track Weekend for 2025!
Click HERE to reserve your seat now!
Dear Fellow Property Investor,
House prices in 25 Melbourne suburbs have out-earned their owners in the past year, surging at least $100,000 as the family home became 2024’s “most successful” property type.
New Real Estate Institute of Victoria figures show while the wider city’s median house price fell by $20,000 (2.1 per cent) to $913,000 in 2024, a handful of postcodes shrugged off tough conditions.
Multimillion-dollar housing markets including Deepdene, Portsea and Brighton had some of the biggest gains, rising anywhere from $255,000 to a whopping $602,000 in the past 12 months.
But more affordable pockets including Brooklyn, where the typical house today costs $803,250, and Yarra Glen, $935,000, also notched six-figure gains.
The growth would put them comfortably ahead of the $97,864 a year wage of Victoria’s typical worker, according to latest Australian Bureau of Statistics data.
In further good news for some homeowners, there were 92 suburbs where the median house price grew at least 3.6 per cent in the past 12 months to outpace the 3.5 per cent increase in Aussie wages in the same period.
TOP GROWTH AREAS: HOUSES
Source: REIV December Quarter Median Prices, 2024
So let me ask you a question…
Do you have a game plan for 2025?
Or will you watch savvy, educated, market-ready investors snap up all the bargains at the recovery phase of the Melbourne property cycle (which, in my opinion, is RIGHT NOW!)
Or, will you join them?
The choice is yours!
So, what are you waiting for?
Reserve your place and join me and 55 like-minded property investors for the first Real Estate Investing Fast Track Weekend for 2025!
Click HERE to reserve your seat now!
Dear Fellow Property Investor,
Melbourne home buyers have been warned it’s a “critical moment” with just days left to secure a home before Christmas.
Property experts are advising to “seize the opportunity now”, with Melbourne offering some of the most competitive deals nationally.
However, experts are warning a potential interest rate in the new year will bump up prices.
With 1369 properties slated for auction it is expected buyers will remain very much in control.
PropTrack senior economist Paul Ryan said Melbourne’s auction clearance rate from last week sat at a steady 58 per cent, “signalling a strong buyer’s market”.
“Buyers are feeling confident, playing sellers off against each other in hopes of securing favourable deals,” Mr Ryan said.
“As we hurtle towards the New Year, with over 1300 auctions set for this weekend, Melbourne buyers face a critical moment to get into the market now.
“Those buyers who capitalise on the current surplus of stock are likely to secure homes before the market activity drops over the Christmas period.”
Buyers advocate Cate Bakos said the amount of homes on the market presents a “golden opportunity” to wrap up the perfect pre-Christmas gift – a new home.
“We’ve had the most stock on the market since October 2012 – so from a supply and demand point of view it’s perfect for buyers,” Ms Bakos said.
“As we get closer to Christmas buyers will get wrapped up in their plans and their attention span won’t be focused on property shopping.
“From a vendors perspective they might want to sell their properties before Christmas for financial reasons.”
So let me ask you a question…
Do you have a game plan for 2024 and for 2025?
Or will you watch savvy, educated, market-ready investors snap up all the bargains at the recovery phase of the Melbourne property cycle (which, in my opinion, is RIGHT NOW!)
Or, will you join them?
The choice is yours!
So, what are you waiting for?
Reserve your place and join me and 55 like-minded property investors for the final Real Estate Investing Fast Track Weekend for 2024!
Click HERE to reserve your seat now!
Dear Fellow Property Investor,
Australian home prices have surged to new heights in October, marking the 22nd consecutive month of growth despite ongoing affordability challenges.
National home prices increased by 0.26 per cent in October, with the combined capital cities now up 5.85 per cent over the past year.
Melbourne emerged as the strongest performer among capital cities, with prices jumping 0.49 per cent after six months of decline.
REA Group Senior Economist, Eleanor Creagh said price falls have started to reverse in Melbourne, with buyers out in force for the peak of spring selling season.
Here are some of Melbourne’s best performing suburbs in the September quarter of 2024;
Interested in getting educated on Australian property investing?
Reserve your place and join me and 55 like-minded property investors for the final Real Estate Investing Fast Track Weekend for 2024!
Click HERE to reserve your seat now!
Richard Swanson faced a tough choice: sell the South Yarra investment property he had owned for six years for a loss, or hold on and hope it recovered in value.
He chose to hold. That was five years ago and since then prices have only fallen further. After about 11 years, he has just sold the apartment for $156,000 less than he paid.
This is the puzzle at the heart of Melbourne’s housing affordability crisis: property prices have soared over the long term, but not for all properties. There aren’t enough homes, but there are too many of the wrong type of home. Young families have increasingly been locked out of home ownership, but there are few willing buyers for well-located, entry-priced apartments.
The Victorian government this week unveiled fresh plans to increase housing density in areas close to transport and amenities, along with a range of proposals to unlock land in the outer suburbs, speed up subdivisions and offer relief on stamp duty to address affordability.
Of the 25 new activity centres, eight are in the City of Stonnington, one of the most desirable areas to live in Melbourne.
And yet, that puzzle: of the homes that sold in Stonnington in the June quarter, 25.8 per cent traded at a loss, figures from research firm CoreLogic show. Stonnington runs second to the Melbourne City Council area, where 39 per cent lost money.
Split by property type, 32.4 per cent of Stonnington apartments that sold in the June quarter lost money. Only 2.1 per cent of houses met the same fate.
Since nearly one in three apartment sellers in Stonnington are losing money, stories like Swanson’s are not unusual, even if many owners are reluctant to speak publicly.
The Beechworth-based public servant, 63, and his wife bought their two-bedroom apartment off the plan about 11 years ago for $691,000. They will settle to the new buyer on Monday for $535,000.
Taking into account holding costs, he estimates conservatively they have lost $200,000.
The property is near South Yarra train station, where a cluster of high-density apartment blocks have been built. It was rented out but the tenant relocated after the COVID-19 pandemic hit. Then the apartment was competing for tenants with its similar neighbours.
Once interest rates jumped, the rent no longer covered the mortgage repayments. Then the Victorian government increased land tax on second home owners.
“It’s a lovely apartment in a lovely complex where we are in South Yarra but what we weren’t aware of is at the same time, there was a lot of other developers who were also building lots of apartments,” Swanson said.
“I think the apartment market is overcrowded. I know there’s a lot of people needing rental accommodation … it’s a catch-22 in a way.”
He sold through Woodards South Yarra, which handles sales of a mix of properties, from apartment towers and art deco unit blocks to multimillion-dollar houses. Director Luke Piccolo says large two-bedroom boutique apartments can cost close to $2 million.
There are much more affordable options in the Forest Hill precinct near the train station, where some towers have had cladding issues, water issues, or lesser-quality builds.
Buyers could associate some of these homes with uncertainty and risk if they had heard they might have to pay for cladding repair or they might face a drop in value, Piccolo said.
“Some first home buyers have bought a one-bedroom apartment for $450,000 to $500,000 and it’s now worth in the high $300,000s or $350,000,” he said.
“Losing $100,000 on your first purchase sets people back a long way, a very long way.”
Interested in getting educated on Australian property investing?
Reserve your place and join me and 55 like-minded property investors for the final Real Estate Investing Fast Track Weekend for 2024!
Click HERE to reserve your seat now!
Dear Fellow Property Investor,
Australia’s housing market has had a mixed start to spring, but PropTrack data has revealed a number of suburbs around the country that have seen massive growth over the past 12 months.
The data looked at Melbourne suburbs with at least 100 sales for the year, revealing that some areas had experienced boom-like growth cycles.
Melbourne’s housing market shows resilience with significant growth in suburbs like Ivanhoe, Diamond Creek, and Coburg North. Ivanhoe leads the housing growth, while Blackburn, Box Hill, and Surrey Hills witness strong unit growth driven by overseas interest and skilled migrants.
Melbourne’s market has faced unique challenges, including unfavourable investment taxation and changes to tenancy laws making investment properties less attractive.
Leading house price growth over the last 12 months was Ivanhoe (17.3 per cent), Diamond Creek (13.2 per cent) and Coburg North (12.8 per cent).
Blackburn (22.1 per cent), Box Hill (11.1 per cent) and Surrey Hills (11 per cent), led unit growth.
“With higher interest rates, we’ve seen sales at higher price points and a higher turnover in the top quartile.
“With units, Blackburn, Box Hill, and Surrey Hills have all seen significant overseas interest, especially since the Covid lockdowns – skilled migrants have been arriving in these areas and the hospital precinct.“
So let me ask you a question…
Do you have a game plan for 2024?
Or will you watch savvy, educated, market-ready investors snap up all the bargains at the recovery phase of the Melbourne property cycle (which, in my opinion, is RIGHT NOW!)
Or, will you join them?
The choice is yours!
So, what are you waiting for?
Reserve your place and join me and 55 like-minded property investors for the first Real Estate Investing Fast Track Weekend for 2024!
Click HERE to reserve your seat now!
Dear Fellow Property Investor,
Melbourne renters are now paying almost $2900 more in rent than they were 12 months ago, new data has revealed.
According to PropTrack’s latest Market Insight Report, Melbourne rental prices have climbed by 10.6 per cent in the year to June 2024.
The median advertised rent increased by $55 a week over the last 12 months, meaning renters on average are having to pay $2860 more a year.
Across the board, the median weekly cost of renting a home in Australia’s capital cities has increased by 10.3 per cent.
Renters in Sydney are paying the most ($740 a week), followed by Perth ($650), Brisbane ($620), Darwin ($600) and the ACT (also $600).
Despite the sharp increase over the past 12 months, Melbourne is the third-cheapest city in Australia to rent in ($575 a week), with Adelaide coming in at a close second ($570)
The cheapest place to rent is in Hobart, which recorded a median rental price of $510 a week over the last 12 months.
“Sydney remains the most expensive capital city to rent a home, with the median advertised rent rising 2.8 per cent over the quarter and 8.8 per cent year-on-year to reach $740 per week,” PopTrack said.
“Over the past decade, Perth has transitioned from being the most affordable capital city to rent to the second most expensive behind Sydney, with the median advertised rent hitting $650 per week in June.
“Hobart and the ACT were the only cities which saw rents decline over the quarter, however Hobart remains higher compared to 12 months ago while the ACT’s rental prices have held steady.”
Let me ask you something…
Do you have a game plan for 2024?
Or will you watch savvy, educated, market-ready investors snap up all the bargains at the bottom of the Melbourne property cycle (which, in my opinion, already bottomed out in November 2022), again?
Or, will you join them?
So, what are you waiting for?
Reserve your place and join me and 55 like-minded property investors for the first Real Estate Investing Fast Track Weekend for 2024!
Click HERE to reserve your seat now!
Dear Fellow Property Investor,
Melbourne homeowners are set for an up to $55,000 windfall that could usher in record house prices in the next year.
New PropTrack estimates have tipped the city for 3 per cent to 6 per cent home value growth, the biggest uplift in the past two years after multiple interest rate hikes since May 2022 put the Victorian capital’s housing market in the doldrums.
For Melbourne’s $921,000 median house price, the growth would mean a $27,630-$55,260 surge.
It would also add $18,500-$37,020 to the city’s $617,000 typical unit.
At the upper end of the forecast, the city’s home values would rise more than seven times the 0.8 per cent uptick they recorded this financial year.
PropTrack economic research director Cameron Kusher said Melbourne buyers have had more choice in stock than other states and the city was becoming more attractive to buyers due to its affordability.
“It’s the first time Brisbane is back in line with Melbourne in terms of affordability and the gap (of affordability) between Sydney and Melbourne, it’s one of the largest on record,” Mr Kusher said. “Although Victoria is still seeing a slightly greater loss of people to other states than it is gaining, housing affordability will drive people to want to come to Victoria.
“If you want to build your career you want to be in Sydney or Melbourne.”
Despite the scope for price rises, Mr Kusher said with the new financial year looming there were positive signs for buyers ahead.
“With the tax cuts coming next week we will see buyers borrowing capacity increase and then provided that we have interest rate cuts as well at some point, Melbourne will start looking more affordable and attractive,” he said.
“The state government in Victoria is still seeing investors selling out of the market which is creating space for first home buyers.
“It’s getting more expensive to rent and there is a lot of stock on the market.”
Ray White Craigieburn auctioneer and sales consultant Trish Orrico said 50 per cent of her sales lately had been landlords selling up due to tax hikes for investors, with first home buyers snapping up the residences.
“While these projected figures are positive, we shouldn’t be making assumptions on the property market, we don’t have a crystal ball,” Ms Orrico said.
“The market is the market we are guided by things that are happening within the economy now.”
The analysis from PropTrack revealed national home prices are expected to rise by up to 5 per cent in the new financial year in line with slowing price growth forecast for several capital cities, though more substantial price growth is still possible in Sydney as well as Melbourne.
Let me ask you something…
Do you have a game plan for 2024?
Or will you watch savvy, educated, market-ready investors snap up all the bargains at the bottom of the Melbourne property cycle (which, in my opinion, already bottomed out in November 2022), again?
Or, will you join them?
So, what are you waiting for?
Reserve your place and join me and 55 like-minded property investors for the first Real Estate Investing Fast Track Weekend for 2024!
Click HERE to reserve your seat now!
Dear Fellow Property Investor,
The Melbourne real estate market is buzzing with potential at the start of 2024, offering a plethora of opportunities for savvy investors and homebuyers alike. So, what suburbs will boom in Melbourne this year?
A handful of Melbourne suburbs recorded double-digit property price increases over 2023, bucking the city’s wider trend of modest growth.
Melbourne’s median house price median rose 2 per cent to $1,047,000 over the 12 months to December, and its unit price grew 4 per cent to almost $580,000 in the same period, the latest Domain House Price Report showed.
With an eye on the future, identifying suburbs with the promise of growth, affordability, and lifestyle appeal becomes crucial.
We will look into the top 10 Melbourne suburbs set to boom in 2024, alongside other noteworthy areas that promise unique opportunities.
Who will be my No #1 Best Melbourne cheapie suburb with the best capital growth potential in 2024?
You will need to watch this video to find out...
Interested in learning more about property investing in Australia? Please visit our main website InvestorsPrime.com.au for loads of free resources, articles, videos and more to help you on your investing journey.