[NEW VIDEO]: Should You Buy Real Estate Now Or Wait Until Interest Rates Fall?

Dear Fellow Property Investor,

ANZ and the Commonwealth Bank are both forecasting a rate cut when the RBA next meets in February. The Reserve Bank says economic management remains a "balancing act".

ANZ has joined the Commonwealth Bank in predicting an interest rate cut in February, which could provide relief to mortgage holders following a sustained rate of 4.35 per cent.

The cash rate has stayed the same since November 2023, with Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governor Michele Bullock saying that taming inflation is a "balancing act"."

With inflation coming down and employment growing, we think we remain on the narrow path," she said after the central bank's December meeting.

So, what does the RBA consider when setting its cash rate target, and what do the 'big four' banks think lies ahead?

What are the banks predicting?

ANZ and CommBank are both forecasting a rate cut when the RBA next meets in February.

Westpac and NAB disagree and are predicting Australians will have to wait for the third RBA meeting in May before the cash rate target is changed.

The banks also differ when it comes to estimating how many cuts will occur throughout 2025.

ANZ is the most conservative and is anticipating two cuts this year, while CBA and Westpac both speculate four will occur.

NAB is projecting five rate cuts.

Independent financial comparison site Canstar has estimated that a reduction in monthly repayments from one cut could be up to $92 on a $600,000 loan with 25 years remaining on the term.

How much could Australians save?

On Friday, Canstar released data calculating drops in mortgage repayments for each of the bank's predictions.

If five rate cuts are realised, the drop in monthly repayments could be as high as $441 per month for a borrower with a $600,000 loan and 25 years remaining.

If just two rate cuts occur, the same borrower will save $182 each month.NAB is expecting the greatest relief for borrowers with five cuts compared to ANZ’s forecast for only two cuts.

A rate cut is increasingly likely this February, but Canstar data insights director Sally Tindall said to "prepare for any possibility".

"The big question is just how many rate cuts the RBA will end up handing out. If you’ve got a mortgage, be prepared for every possibility," she said.

"A rate cut in February is increasingly likely, however, with over five weeks to go until the next Board meeting and the RBA firmly focused on incoming data, this could change."

There are several measures that influence RBA decision-making, including inflation and unemployment.

Looking to inflation and employment rates

ANZ's new prediction of a February rate cut follows the release of November's consumer price index (CPI) data on Wednesday.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported CPI at 2.3 per cent in the 12 months leading to November, within the RBA's target of 2 to 3 per cent.

ABS head of price statistics Michelle Marquardt said government electricity rebates had a large impact on CPI.

"In some states and territories, households received two rebate payments in October in lieu of not receiving a payment in July. From November, most households have received one payment," she said on Wednesday.

"As a result, electricity prices fell 21.5 per cent in the 12 months to November, compared to a fall of 35.6 per cent to October."

Meanwhile, underlying inflation was at 3.2 per cent in November, down from 3.5 per cent in October.

The RBA's target for this form of inflation is 2 to 3 per cent. Tindall said analysts would also be looking at soon-to-be-released employment data.

"All eyes will be on next week’s ABS Labour Force data and the quarterly CPI results released at the end of the month," she said.

"If core inflation continues along the same trajectory as we saw in the more volatile monthly dataset, then we could well see a rate cut."

Let me ask you something…

Do you have a game plan for 2025?

Or will you watch savvy, educated, market-ready investors snap up all the bargains at the bottom of the Melbourne property cycle (which, in my opinion, already bottomed out in November 2022), again?

Or, will you join them?

So, what are you waiting for?

Reserve your place and join me and 55 like-minded property investors for the first Real Estate Investing Fast Track Weekend for 2025!

Click HERE to reserve your seat now!

Dear Fellow Property Investors,

Melbourne homes are now 41% cheaper than those in Sydney, a $600,000 difference, marking the largest price gap in 20 years.

Sydney has long been Australia’s most expensive city for homebuyers, but the price difference between Sydney and Melbourne has reached unprecedented levels.

PropTrack’s Eleonor Creagh said that as of August, Sydney’s median house price is 70% higher than Melbourne’s, with Melbourne homes now 41% cheaper – a $600,000 difference, marking the largest price gap in 20 years.

Housing supply and land constraints drive Sydney’s premium.

One significant factor behind Sydney’s rising premium is its constrained land supply.

Sydney’s natural features, including its harbor and surrounding national parks, limit the availability of developable land. 

In contrast, Melbourne has seen a higher rate of new home completions per capita.

Over the past decade, Victoria averaged 9.5 new dwellings per 1,000 residents per year, compared to just seven in New South Wales, PropTrack reported.

Higher building costs in Sydney

A recent report by The Centre for International Economics (CIE) also highlighted Sydney’s higher construction costs. Red tape, taxes, and other fees make building new homes in Sydney more expensive, with 50% of these costs tied to such charges, compared to 37% in Melbourne.

“Waterfront properties and international appeal have kept Sydney’s market strong,” Creagh said.

Melbourne’s market struggles post-pandemic

Melbourne has lagged behind other cities since the COVID-19 pandemic, losing population and experiencing less dramatic price increases than other Australian capitals.

Since March 2020, Melbourne has been the weakest performing capital, with house prices still 4.7% below their peak. 

The city has even dropped to fourth place among Australia’s most expensive capitals, with Brisbane and Canberra surpassing it.

Investor confidence declines in Victoria

Several factors are contributing to Melbourne’s continued underperformance.

Higher land taxes for investment properties have made Melbourne less attractive to investors, while stock levels remain high. In July, Melbourne listings were the highest since November 2018, providing buyers with plenty of choices.

The future of the Sydney-Melbourne divide

Looking ahead, Melbourne’s housing market is expected to remain subdued compared to Sydney, Creagh said.

The combination of a high inventory of homes and softer economic conditions may cause Melbourne prices to fall further. However, as Melbourne houses become more affordable, the price gap could eventually narrow.

While Sydney’s geographic limitations and global appeal may ensure it retains a price premium, the historic price swing may make Melbourne more appealing in the future.“

At some point, Melbourne may be seen as undervalued, given its current price levels relative to Sydney,” Creagh said.

Let me ask you something…

Do you have a game plan for 2025?

Or will you watch savvy, educated, market-ready investors snap up all the bargains at the bottom of the Melbourne property cycle (which, in my opinion, already bottomed out in November 2022), again?

Or, will you join them?

So, what are you waiting for?

Reserve your place and join me and 55 like-minded property investors for the first Real Estate Investing Fast Track Weekend for 2025!

Click HERE to reserve your seat now!

Dear Fellow Property Investor,

In the four years since the pandemic began, home prices around the country have staged a remarkable feat.

From fears of sharp falls through the pandemic, to predictions of steep declines when interest rates began to quickly climb, home prices have defied the expectations of many, surging 39.9% nationally.

Throughout this four-year period, multiple factors have influenced and shifted housing trends, with the housing market cycling through different phases as a result of the pandemic's wide-ranging economic and social impacts.

The supply of properties for sale, population growth, building activity, rental market conditions, interest rates, and interstate and regional migration have all affected home price growth, as well as how it has been distributed Australia-wide since March 2020.

And at the same time these factors have faced a complex interplay of economic policies, consumer behaviour, and broader societal changes in response to the pandemic.

In the past year capital city markets have outperformed regional areas (7.64% versus 4.67%), but comparing growth since the pandemic onset, regional home prices have significantly outperformed their capital city counterparts in every state except WA and NT.

This outperformance was largely accumulated throughout the pandemic property price boom.

At the very onset of the pandemic, there was a pause in the housing market as lockdown restrictions, closed borders and uncertainty weighed, with many thinking home prices would fall.

In fact, the opposite occurred. Housing demand surged, and along with record low interest rates and limited stock for sale, combined to drive a price boom that saw national prices growing at the third-fastest rate in Australia’s history.

Let me ask you something…

Do you have a game plan for 2024?

Or will you watch savvy, educated, market-ready investors snap up all the bargains at the bottom of the Melbourne property cycle (which, in my opinion, already bottomed out in November 2022), again?

Or, will you join them?

So, what are you waiting for?

Reserve your place and join me and 55 like-minded property investors for the first Real Estate Investing Fast Track Weekend for 2024!

Click HERE to reserve your seat now!

Dear Fellow Property Investors,

Australia is facing two more years of house price growth, with two standout markets expected to jump the most, according to a bank expert.

Melbourne and Perth will clock the greatest increases in house prices this year, Bank of Queensland chief economist Peter Munckton found in his new year outlook report.

Depleted listings and few options for buyers will cap how far prices can decline, Munckton wrote in the BOQ's Housing Market Update.

Prices will go up this year but not by the margins seen in 2023, he predicts.

Munckton is not expecting interest rate cuts until the end of the year. Earlier rate reductions would result in more "aggressive" house price growth, he said.

Price rises will likely continue with gusto in 2025.

"Average house price growth Australia-wide is likely to be lower in 2024 than it was in 2023," he said in the report.

"The lack of new supply puts a floor as to how far house price growth can slow (at least without substantial changes in interest rates or the unemployment rate).

"Stronger house price growth is likely in 2025 as interest rates are reduced and the economic outlook improves."

Domain's latest House Price Report (December 2023), released in January, found record median prices were struck across several capital cities. It has never been more expensive to buy a house or unit in Australia.

At $1,094,539 for houses (up 2.1 per cent over the quarter, or 7.8 per cent over a year) and $638,372 for units (up 2.3 per cent over the quarter and 6.8 per cent over 12 months), the fresh levels inflict further challenges on those striving to get a foot in the market, but reflect capital gains and increased equity for those with mortgages.

Munckton said the bounce of prices in 2023 was a "surprise" to most analysts.

He said the "biggest rise" in standalone house prices in 2024 will be in Melbourne and Perth - markets which he regards as "best value" when comparing rental yield with the level of long-term interest rates.

"Melbourne price performance last year was modest by capital city standards," he wrote.

Let me ask you something…

Do you have a game plan for 2024?

Or will you watch savvy, educated, market-ready investors snap up all the bargains at the bottom of the Melbourne property cycle (which, in my opinion, already bottomed out in November 2022), again?

Or, will you join them?    

So, what are you waiting for?

Reserve your place and join me and 55 like-minded property investors for the first Real Estate Investing Fast Track Weekend for 2024!

Click HERE to reserve your seat now!